One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
IcelandKick-off0-0Luxembourg
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Iceland 2.2 – 0.6 Luxembourg. Most frequent scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 3-0 (11%). Both teams score in 42% of the simulated matches. About 9.4 corners on average. About 3.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
IcelandLuxembourg
Iceland: the stronger side on our resultsICstrong
Iceland: home advantage in this competitionICclear
Also considered
Iceland: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
Luxembourg: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Iceland.
Table by result
Iceland1
Win1Draw1Loss1
Luxembourg4
A win lifts them to 3.
Win3Draw3–4Loss4
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
In the table, Iceland sit 1st with 11 points and Luxembourg are 4th with 3 points. Iceland and Luxembourg both start the day in the top four, 8 points apart.
Recent form
IcelandWDWWDLuxembourgLLLLW
Iceland are unbeaten in their last 5 matches: 3 wins and 2 draws. 6 games without defeat for Iceland. At home, Iceland have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 matches, with a goal tally of 13-4. Iceland have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
Over the last 5 matches, Luxembourg have collected 1 win and 4 defeats. Luxembourg come in on a run of 4 straight defeats. Luxembourg's recent away record reads 3 wins and 2 defeats in 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Across 10 matches, Luxembourg have scored 0.8 and let in 1.0 goals per match on average.
The history between them
In 4 previous meetings, Iceland have won 1, Luxembourg 1, and 2 have been drawn. The last meeting, in 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, ended in a 3-0 win for Iceland. Those 4 games produced 11 goals, an average of 2.8 per match.
UEFA Nations League
