One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
GermanyKick-off0-0Netherlands
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Germany 2.0 – 1.5 Netherlands. Most frequent scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Both teams score in 67% of the simulated matches. About 9.6 corners on average. About 3.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 21%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
GermanyNetherlands
Netherlands: the stronger side on our resultsNEclear
Germany: home advantage in this competitionGEstrong
Also considered
Germany: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
Netherlands: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Germany.
Why it matters: A win could put Germany top of the table.
Table by result
Germany3
A win can take them top.
Win1–2Draw2Loss2–3
Netherlands1
A draw is enough to stay top.
A defeat can drop them as low as 2.
Win1Draw1Loss1–2
Some teams are level on points: goal difference decides (head-to-head in some leagues), so the order may change.
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
In the table, Germany sit 3rd with 8 points and the Netherlands are 1st with 11 points. Germany and the Netherlands both start the day in the top four, 3 points apart. A win could take Germany top of the table.
Recent form
GermanyWDWLDNetherlandsWWDWD
Germany come into it with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 matches. Germany are unbeaten in 3 matches. At home, Germany have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 matches, with a goal tally of 7-4. Across 10 matches, Germany have scored 1.9 and let in 0.9 goals per match on average.
The Netherlands have 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 5. The Netherlands have not lost in 10 matches. The Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 5 matches away from home (3 wins and 2 draws). Goals have flowed in the Netherlands' games: 8 of the last 10 produced at least three.
Head to head
The record between them over the last 10 matches reads 3-5-2 from Germany's point of view. The last meeting, in 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, finished 1-1. Germany are unbeaten in the last 5 meetings with the Netherlands.
UEFA Nations League
United States
