Bulgaria vs Iceland kick-off time: 13/11/2026 19:45
Europe
UEFA Nations League Round 5
Match info
Last 5 matches
More- BulgariaWLDLD
- IcelandDWWDWUnbeaten in 5 matches
Recent meetings
More- UEFA Nations LeagueIceland3 - 0Bulgaria
UEFA Nations League
More| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | +6 | 8 |
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | -5 | 3 |
Line-ups
Line-ups not announced yetOfficial line-ups usually come about an hour before kick-off.
Bulgaria and Iceland meet on in UEFA Nations League.
Venue: Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv.
Pre-match analysis
Not started
- Scoreno
- Statisticsno
- Line-upsyes
- Pitch animationno
- Pressure datano
- Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Iceland (54%).
Chances to win
Model estimate
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Preview
Bulgaria vs Iceland: preview
Bulgaria have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches. 5 of Bulgaria's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 4. Iceland have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches. Iceland are unbeaten in 5 matches. 5 of Iceland's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 3.
Bulgaria are in position 3 with 4 points, Iceland in position 1 with 8 points. A win could lift Bulgaria as high as position 2.
Our pre-match model estimate: Bulgaria 21%, draw 25%, Iceland 54%.
Table by result
- A win lifts them to 2.
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulationsModel simulation (20,000 runs): Bulgaria win in 21% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Iceland win 54%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 0-1 (14%); both teams score in 46%.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
