One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
GibraltarKick-off0-0Malta
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Gibraltar 0.6 – 1.7 Malta. Most frequent scores: 0-1 (17%), 0-2 (15%), 1-1 (10%). Both teams score in 37% of the simulated matches. About 9.7 corners on average. About 3.9 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
GibraltarMalta
Malta: the stronger side on our resultsMAstrong
Gibraltar: home advantage in this competitionGIclear
Also considered
Gibraltar: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Malta.
Table by result
Gibraltar3
A win lifts them to 2.
Win2Draw3Loss3
Malta1
Win1Draw1Loss1
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Malta arrive 1st in the standings on 7 points; Gibraltar are 3rd with 2 points. Gibraltar and Malta both start the day in the top four, 5 points apart.
Recent form
GibraltarLWDDDMaltaDWDWW
Over the last 5 matches, Gibraltar have collected 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat. Andorra beat Gibraltar 2-0 last time out. Gibraltar's recent home record reads 3 wins and 2 draws in 5 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 1. Gibraltar have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
Over the last 5 matches, Malta have collected 3 wins and 2 draws. Malta have found the net in 7 straight games. Malta's previous outing was a 1-1 draw at home to Eswatini in the International Friendlies, 4 days before this kick-off. Malta's recent away record reads 3 wins and 2 defeats in 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 6.
Head to head
Gibraltar and Malta have met 4 times in our records: 1 win for Gibraltar, 2 for Malta and 1 draw. The last meeting, in 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, finished 1-1. Malta are unbeaten in the last 3 meetings with Gibraltar.
UEFA Nations League
