One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
BelarusKick-off0-0Albania
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Belarus 0.8 – 1.5 Albania. Most frequent scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Both teams score in 43% of the simulated matches. About 9.4 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 25%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
BelarusAlbania
Albania: the stronger side on our resultsALstrong
Belarus: home advantage in this competitionBEclear
Also considered
Belarus: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
Albania: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Albania.
Why it matters: A win could put Belarus top of the table.
Table by result
Belarus2Promotion play-off
A win takes them top.
Win1Draw2Loss2
Albania1Promotion
A draw is enough to stay top.
A defeat can drop them out of the Promotion places.
Win1Draw1Loss2
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Belarus take on Albania in the UEFA Nations League (matchday 6) on Sunday, 15 November 2026, with kick-off at 17:00 at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion.
Where they stand
Belarus210 PtsAlbania112 Pts
In the table, Belarus sit 2nd with 10 points and Albania are 1st with 12 points. Belarus and Albania both start the day in the top four, 2 points apart. A win could take Belarus top of the table.
How they come into it
BelarusWWWDLAlbaniaWWLWW
Over the last 5 matches, Belarus have collected 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. Belarus have not lost in 4 matches. At home, Belarus have 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 matches, with a goal tally of 11-3. Belarus have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
Recent form for Albania: 4 wins and 1 defeat in 5, with 10 goals for and 3 against. Albania have found the net in 5 straight games. Albania's recent away record reads 2 wins and 3 defeats in 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Across 10 matches, Albania have scored 1.2 and let in 0.8 goals per match on average.
Head to head
In 8 previous meetings, Belarus have won 2, Albania 4, and 2 have been drawn. The last meeting, in 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, went 2-0 to Albania. Belarus have lost each of the last 3 games against Albania.
UEFA Nations League
