Luxembourg vs Estonia kick-off time: 13/11/2026 19:45
Europe
UEFA Nations League Round 5
Match info
Last 5 matches
More- LuxembourgLLLWW3 defeats in a row
- EstoniaDWDDWUnbeaten in 6 matches
Recent meetings
More- UEFA Nations LeagueEstonia1 - 0Luxembourg
UEFA Nations League
More| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | +6 | 8 |
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | -5 | 3 |
Line-ups
Line-ups not announced yetOfficial line-ups usually come about an hour before kick-off.
Luxembourg and Estonia meet on in UEFA Nations League.
Venue: Stade de Luxembourg.
Pre-match analysis
Not started
- Scoreno
- Statisticsno
- Line-upsyes
- Pitch animationno
- Pressure datano
- Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Luxembourg (44%).
Why it matters: A win could put Estonia top of the table.
Chances to win
Model estimate
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Preview
Luxembourg vs Estonia: preview
Luxembourg have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches. Luxembourg have lost 3 matches in a row. 3 of Luxembourg's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 1. Estonia have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches. Estonia are unbeaten in 6 matches. 2 of Estonia's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 4.
Luxembourg are in position 4 with 3 points, Estonia in position 2 with 6 points. A win could lift Luxembourg as high as position 2. A win could lift Estonia as high as position 1.
Our pre-match model estimate: Luxembourg 44%, draw 29%, Estonia 27%.
Table by result
- A win can lift them as high as 2.
- A win takes them top.
- A defeat can drop them as low as 3.
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulationsModel simulation (20,000 runs): Luxembourg win in 44% of the simulated matches, 29% end level and Estonia win 27%. Average goals 2.2; the most likely score is 1-0 (14%); both teams score in 44%.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
