One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
EstoniaKick-off0-0Bulgaria
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Estonia 1.3 – 0.8 Bulgaria. Most frequent scores: 1-0 (16%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Both teams score in 41% of the simulated matches. About 9.4 corners on average. About 3.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
EstoniaBulgaria
Estonia: the stronger side on our resultsESstrong
Estonia: home advantage in this competitionESclear
Also considered
Estonia: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
Bulgaria: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Estonia.
Why it matters: A win could put Estonia top of the table.
Table by result
Estonia2
A win takes them top.
Win1Draw2Loss2
Bulgaria3
Win3Draw3Loss3
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Estonia go into the game 2nd on 9 points, Bulgaria 3rd on 4 points. This is a meeting of two top-four sides separated by 5 points: Estonia against Bulgaria. Estonia can climb to the top with victory.
How they come into it
EstoniaWDWDDBulgariaLWLDL
Over the last 5 matches, Estonia have collected 2 wins and 3 draws. Estonia have not lost in 10 matches. Estonia's recent home record reads 4 wins and 1 draw in 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 0. 7 of Estonia's last 10 matches ended without a goal conceded.
Over the last 5 matches, Bulgaria have collected 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats. Bulgaria lost 5-0 at home to Iceland in their last match. Bulgaria's recent away record reads 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 5 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 7. 6 of Bulgaria's last 10 matches have had three or more goals.
Head to head
The record between them over the last 4 matches reads 0-3-1 from Estonia's point of view. When they last met, on 29 September 2026, it ended 0-0. Estonia have not beaten Bulgaria in 4 matches.
UEFA Nations League
United States
