One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
CyprusKick-off0-0Montenegro
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Cyprus 1.2 – 1.5 Montenegro. Most frequent scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Both teams score in 52% of the simulated matches. About 9.7 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 25%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
CyprusMontenegro
On our results the two teams are close in strengthbalanced
Cyprus: home advantage in this competitionCYstrong
Missing players taken into account: Cyprus 0, Montenegro 1CYslight
Also considered
Cyprus: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
Montenegro: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Montenegro.
Table by result
Cyprus2Promotion play-off
Win2Draw2Loss2
Montenegro1Promotion
Win1Draw1Loss1
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Montenegro arrive 1st in the standings on 13 points; Cyprus are 2nd with 8 points. Cyprus and Montenegro both start the day in the top four, 5 points apart.
Form guide
CyprusDWWDLMontenegroWDWWW
Over the last 5 matches, Cyprus have collected 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. 4 games without defeat for Cyprus. Cyprus' recent home record reads 3 wins and 2 defeats in 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Across 10 matches, Cyprus have scored 1.4 and let in 1.2 goals per match on average.
Recent form for Montenegro: 4 wins and 1 draw in 5, with 9 goals for and 5 against. Montenegro are unbeaten in 7 matches. Montenegro's recent away record reads 4 wins and 1 draw in 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Goals have flowed in Montenegro's games: 7 of the last 10 produced at least three.
Previous meetings
The record between them over the last 6 matches reads 0-3-3 from Cyprus' point of view. The last meeting, in 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, went 2-1 to Montenegro. Cyprus have lost each of the last 3 games against Montenegro.
UEFA Nations League
United States
