One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
FinlandKick-off0-0San Marino
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Finland 2.6 – 0.6 San Marino. Most frequent scores: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Both teams score in 44% of the simulated matches. About 9.3 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 25%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
FinlandSan Marino
Finland: the stronger side on our resultsFIstrong
Finland: home advantage in this competitionFIclear
Also considered
Finland: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
San Marino: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
Finland go into the game 3rd on 7 points, San Marino 4th on 0 points. This is a meeting of two top-four sides separated by 7 points: Finland against San Marino.
Form guide
FinlandLLWDWSan MarinoLLLLL
Finland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 4. Finland lost 2-0 away to Albania in their last match. Finland's recent home record reads 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 3. Finland average 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game over their last 10.
San Marino have not won any of their last 5 matches (5 defeats). San Marino have gone 16 matches without a win. San Marino are still waiting for a win on their travels: 5 defeats in the last 5 away games. 8 of San Marino's last 10 matches have had three or more goals.
Head to head
The record between them over the last 7 matches reads 7-0-0 from Finland's point of view. When they last met, on 26 September 2026, Finland won 7-0. Finland have won the last 7 meetings with San Marino.
UEFA Nations League
