One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
KazakhstanKick-off0-0Slovakia
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Kazakhstan 1.0 – 1.8 Slovakia. Most frequent scores: 0-1 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Both teams score in 51% of the simulated matches. About 9.8 corners on average. About 3.7 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
KazakhstanSlovakia
Slovakia: the stronger side on our resultsSLstrong
Kazakhstan: home advantage in this competitionKAclear
Missing players taken into account: Kazakhstan 1, Slovakia 0SLslight
Also considered
Kazakhstan: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
Slovakia: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Slovakia.
Table by result
Kazakhstan4
A win can lift them as high as 3.
Win3–4Draw4Loss4
Slovakia1
Win1Draw1Loss1
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
It is 4th against 1st: Kazakhstan have 2 points, Slovakia 11 points. This is a meeting of two top-four sides separated by 9 points: Kazakhstan against Slovakia.
Form guide
KazakhstanLDLLDSlovakiaDWDWW
Kazakhstan have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws and 3 defeats). Kazakhstan have scored in each of their last 9 matches. Kazakhstan's recent home record reads 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Kazakhstan average 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 10.
Over the last 5 matches, Slovakia have collected 3 wins and 2 draws. Slovakia have found the net in 9 straight games. On the road, Slovakia have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 matches, with a goal tally of 6-12. 7 of Slovakia's last 10 matches have had three or more goals.
Previous meetings
The record between them over the last 3 matches reads 2-0-1 from Kazakhstan's point of view. When they last met, on 29 September 2026, Slovakia won 2-1. There have been 7 goals in the 3 meetings, 2.3 a game.
UEFA Nations League
United States
