One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
LithuaniaKick-off0-0Liechtenstein
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Lithuania 2.5 – 0.3 Liechtenstein. Most frequent scores: 2-0 (20%), 3-0 (17%), 1-0 (15%). Both teams score in 21% of the simulated matches. About 9.7 corners on average. About 3.9 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
LithuaniaLiechtenstein
Lithuania: the stronger side on our resultsLIstrong
Lithuania: home advantage in this competitionLIclear
Also considered
Liechtenstein: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Lithuania.
Table by result
Lithuania2
A defeat can drop them as low as 3.
Win2Draw2Loss2–3
Liechtenstein3
A win can lift them as high as 2.
Win2–3Draw3Loss3
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Liechtenstein arrive 3rd in the standings on 1 point; Lithuania are 2nd with 4 points. Lithuania and Liechtenstein both start the day in the top four, 3 points apart.
Form guide
LithuaniaDLWDWLiechtensteinLLDLL
Over the last 5 matches, Lithuania have collected 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. Lithuania's previous outing was a 0-0 draw at home to Suriname in the International Friendlies, 4 days before this kick-off. Lithuania's recent home record reads 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 3. Lithuania have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
Recent form for Liechtenstein: 1 draw and 4 defeats in 5, with 0 goals for and 7 against. Liechtenstein are winless in 8. Liechtenstein's recent away record reads 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in 5 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 8. Across 10 matches, Liechtenstein have scored 0.2 and let in 2.2 goals per match on average.
Head to head
Lithuania and Liechtenstein have met 5 times in our records: 3 wins for Lithuania, 1 for Liechtenstein and 1 draw. The last meeting, in 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, ended in a 2-0 win for Lithuania. Liechtenstein have lost each of the last 3 games against Lithuania.
UEFA Nations League
