One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
North MacedoniaKick-off0-0Slovenia
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals North Macedonia 0.7 – 1.7 Slovenia. Most frequent scores: 0-1 (16%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Both teams score in 41% of the simulated matches. About 9.9 corners on average. About 3.7 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
North MacedoniaSlovenia
Slovenia: the stronger side on our resultsSLstrong
North Macedonia: home advantage in this competitionNMclear
Also considered
North Macedonia: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
Slovenia: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Slovenia.
Table by result
North Macedonia4
Win4Draw4Loss4
Slovenia2
Win2Draw2Loss2
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
It is 4th against 2nd: North Macedonia have 0 points, Slovenia 8 points. This is a meeting of two top-four sides separated by 8 points: North Macedonia against Slovenia.
How they come into it
North MacedoniaLLLLLSloveniaDWLWD
North Macedonia have 5 defeats from their last 5 matches, scoring 1 and conceding 12. North Macedonia have gone 11 matches without a win. North Macedonia's recent home record reads 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 6. 6 of North Macedonia's last 10 matches have had three or more goals.
Over the last 5 matches, Slovenia have collected 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. Slovenia drew 0-0 with Switzerland last time out. On the road, Slovenia have 2 wins and 3 defeats from their last 5 matches, with a goal tally of 7-8. Slovenia average 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game over their last 10.
The history between them
North Macedonia and Slovenia have met 6 times in our records: 2 wins for North Macedonia, 2 for Slovenia and 2 draws. When they last met, on 29 September 2026, Slovenia won 2-0. There have been 15 goals in the 6 meetings, 2.5 a game.
UEFA Nations League
