One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
GreeceKick-off0-0Serbia
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Greece 2.0 – 0.8 Serbia. Most frequent scores: 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%). Both teams score in 49% of the simulated matches. About 9.6 corners on average. About 3.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
GreeceSerbia
Greece: the stronger side on our resultsGRstrong
Greece: home advantage in this competitionGRstrong
Missing players taken into account: Greece 0, Serbia 2GRclear
Also considered
Greece: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
Serbia: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Greece.
Why it matters: A win could put Greece top of the table.
Table by result
Greece2
A win can take them top.
A defeat can drop them as low as 3.
Win1–2Draw2Loss2–3
Serbia4
Win4Draw4Loss4
Some teams are level on points: goal difference decides (head-to-head in some leagues), so the order may change.
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Monday 16 November brings Greece against Serbia in the UEFA Nations League; the game starts at 19:45 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
The table before kick-off
Greece28 PtsSerbia40 Pts
It is 2nd against 4th: Greece have 8 points, Serbia 0 points. This is a meeting of two top-four sides separated by 8 points: Greece against Serbia. Greece can climb to the top with victory.
Recent form
GreeceLDDWWSerbiaLLLLL
Over the last 5 matches, Greece have collected 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. Greece have gone 3 matches without a win. Greece's recent home record reads 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Greece average 0.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 10.
Over the last 5 matches, Serbia have collected 5 defeats. Serbia have lost 7 in a row. On the road, Serbia have 5 defeats from their last 5 matches, with a goal tally of 2-15. 9 of Serbia's last 10 matches have had three or more goals.
Head to head
Greece and Serbia have met 3 times in our records: 2 wins for Greece and 1 for Serbia. When they last met, on 24 September 2026, Greece won 2-1. There have been 6 goals in the 3 meetings, 2.0 a game.
UEFA Nations League
United States
