One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
LatviaKick-off0-0Armenia
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Latvia 1.1 – 1.3 Armenia. Most frequent scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%). Both teams score in 47% of the simulated matches. About 9.7 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 24%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
LatviaArmenia
Armenia: the stronger side on our resultsARstrong
Latvia: home advantage in this competitionLAclear
Also considered
Latvia: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
Armenia: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Armenia.
Why it matters: Armenia are chasing the Promotion play-off places.
Table by result
Latvia4
Win4Draw4Loss4
Armenia3
A win can take them into the Promotion play-off places.
Win2–3Draw3Loss3
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
It is 4th against 3rd: Latvia have 1 point, Armenia 5 points. This is a meeting of two top-four sides separated by 4 points: Latvia against Armenia. Victory could lift Armenia as high as 2nd, a Promotion play-off place.
How they come into it
LatviaLLLDLArmeniaDDLLW
Latvia have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw and 4 defeats). Latvia have gone 6 matches without a win. Latvia's recent home record reads 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in 5 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 8. Latvia average 0.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game over their last 10.
Over the last 5 matches, Armenia have collected 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats. Armenia are winless in 4. On the road, Armenia have 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 matches, with a goal tally of 3-14. Across 10 matches, Armenia have scored 0.9 and let in 2.0 goals per match on average.
The history between them
The record between them over the last 3 matches reads 0-0-3 from Latvia's point of view. When they last met, on 25 September 2026, Armenia won 2-0. Armenia have won the last 3 meetings with Latvia.
UEFA Nations League
