xG & player ratings
ScoreMondo shows expected goals (xG) and a 1–10 player rating. We calculate both ourselves, and this page gives the whole recipe — every input, every weight, the data behind it and how well it works.
Expected goals (xG)
xG is the chance that a shot becomes a goal, from 0 to 1. A shot with xG 0.30 is scored three times in ten on average. Added up over a match, xG says how many goals a team's chances were worth — whatever the finishing and the goalkeepers did.
Our model reads where the shot was taken (its distance to the goal and the angle the goal mouth opens from there) and how (from open play, after a corner, after a free-kick delivery, straight from a free kick). Its coefficients are fitted on real shots by logistic regression:
xG = 1 / (1 + e^(−z))
z = -1.1118 +0.2404·θ −0.0685·d +0.5172·F| Input | Coefficient | What it does |
|---|---|---|
| Constant | −1.1118 | The starting value |
| Angle (radians) θ | +0.2404 | A wider view of the goal raises xG |
| Distance (metres) d | −0.0685 | Every metre further away lowers xG |
| Direct free kick F | +0.5172 | Changes xG of such shots |
A penalty is always worth xG 0.76: the long-run share of penalties scored in professional football.
Examples
| Shot | xG |
|---|---|
| 6 m out, central | 0.22 |
| 11 m out, central (open play) | 0.15 |
| Edge of the box, central | 0.11 |
| 25 m out, central | 0.06 |
| 8 m out, near the byline | 0.17 |
| Penalty | 0.76 |
Data and accuracy
Fitted on 1042 finished matches from 1 Oct 2026 to 21 Oct 2026 in 398 competitions: 19594 shots and 2343 goals (penalties apart).
Tested on days the model never saw (4544 shots from 17 Oct 2026): log-loss 0.360 against 0.373 for a flat guess that every shot is worth the same, Brier score 0.105 against 0.108. Per team and match, xG and goals correlate at r = 0.62.
Calibration: held-out shots in ten groups by xG
| Shots | Average xG | Scored |
|---|---|---|
| 454 | 0.042 | 0.073 |
| 454 | 0.064 | 0.055 |
| 455 | 0.078 | 0.048 |
| 454 | 0.091 | 0.095 |
| 455 | 0.105 | 0.081 |
| 454 | 0.120 | 0.141 |
| 454 | 0.135 | 0.170 |
| 455 | 0.152 | 0.167 |
| 454 | 0.172 | 0.181 |
| 455 | 0.210 | 0.220 |
Where the shots come from: during the match, from our own live feed — its positions are approximate and a goal is placed where the scoring team last had the ball; after the final whistle, from the full match data, which also names the shooters and the blocked shots.
What the model cannot see: the body part (header or foot), where the defenders and the goalkeeper stood, the speed of the attack. Positions are recorded by match observers to within a few metres, so the model is careful with single shots (open-play values from about 0.04 to 0.24); its strength is the total over a match.
ScoreMondo player rating
Every player starts from 6.0 and gains or loses points for what he does in this match, as listed below. The total is kept between 3.0 and 10.0 and shown with one decimal.
| Action | Points |
|---|---|
| Attack | |
| Goal (not a penalty) | +1.0 |
| Penalty scored | +0.5 |
| Assist | +0.7 |
| Per 1.00 xG of his shots (penalties apart) | +0.5 |
| Shot on target | +0.1 |
| Penalty missed | −0.6 |
| Passing | |
| Key pass | +0.25 |
| Every 10 accurate passes | +0.1 |
| Every 5 misplaced passes | −0.1 |
| Successful dribble | +0.1 |
| Defending | |
| Tackle | +0.15 |
| Interception | +0.15 |
| Blocked shot | +0.1 |
| Duel won | +0.05 |
| Duel lost | −0.05 |
| Dribbled past | −0.1 |
| Clean sheet (defender, 60+ minutes) | +0.3 |
| Goal conceded while on the pitch (defender) | −0.15 |
| Goalkeeping | |
| Save | +0.3 |
| Clean sheet (goalkeeper, 60+ minutes) | +0.5 |
| Goal conceded while on the pitch (goalkeeper) | −0.3 |
| Discipline | |
| Yellow card | −0.3 |
| Sent off for a second yellow | −1.0 |
| Straight red card | −1.5 |
| Own goal | −0.8 |
| Penalty conceded | −0.6 |
| Penalty won | +0.4 |
| Foul committed | −0.05 |
| Foul suffered | +0.05 |
| Offside | −0.05 |
| Team result | |
| His team won (× minutes / 90) | +0.2 |
| His team lost (× minutes / 90) | −0.2 |
A rating needs 15 minutes on the pitch (fewer when he scored, assisted or was sent off). The detailed numbers (passes, tackles, duels, saves) count when the match data has them; otherwise only the match events count, and the match page says so. During a match the rating uses what has happened so far.
Player of the match: the best rating among players with at least 30 minutes; a tie goes to more minutes, then to the winning team.
Nothing else counts — no reputation, no club, no transfer value, no earlier match. Every position can earn points: defenders through tackles, interceptions, blocks and clean sheets, goalkeepers through saves.
xG model x1-2026-10-21 (data up to 21 Oct 2026) · rating r1.