Southampton vs Derby County kick-off time: 21 Nov 2026
England
English League Championship Round 16
ScoreMondo estimate
MoreMost likely score: 2-0 (11%)
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Last 5 · Recent meetings
More- SouthamptonLDWWD
- Derby CountyWLLDL
- ChampionshipSouthampton2 - 1Derby County
- ChampionshipDerby County1 - 1Southampton
- FA CupDerby County2 - 2Southampton
- Per match
- Corners won5.6·4.3
- Yellow cards1.6·2.0
Championship
More| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Swansea City | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 | Queens Park Rangers | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby County | 15 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 15 | -17 | 8 |
Line-ups
Line-ups not announced yetOfficial line-ups usually come about an hour before kick-off.
Southampton and Derby County meet on in English League Championship.
Venue: St. Mary's Stadium.
In our records Southampton and Derby County have met 8 times: Southampton won 3, 4 ended level and Derby County won 1.
Their latest meeting (): Southampton 2-1 Derby County.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulationsOne of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Southampton 2.4 – 0.8 Derby County. Most frequent scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Both teams score in 51% of the simulated matches. About 10.0 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 15%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
- Southampton: the stronger side on our resultsSOstrong
- Southampton: home advantage in this competitionSOstrong
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
- Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Southampton.
Why it matters: A relegation battle for Derby County.
Preview
Southampton vs Derby County: preview
Southampton have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches. 5 of Southampton's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 6. Derby County have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches. 5 of Derby County's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 7.
In their last 8 meetings, Southampton won 3, 4 ended level and Derby County won 1. Southampton are in position 7 with 24 points, Derby County in position 23 with 10 points. A win could lift Southampton as high as position 6. A win could lift Derby County as high as position 22.
Table by result
- A win lifts them to 6.
- A defeat can drop them as low as 8.
- A win lifts them to 22.
Some teams are level on points: goal difference decides (head-to-head in some leagues), so the order may change.
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
