One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Preparing the simulation…
Derby CountyKick-off0-0Bolton Wanderers
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Derby County win in 37% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and Bolton Wanderers win 37%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 52%. About 10.2 corners on average. About 3.7 yellow cards on average; a red card in 15%.
Goals scored per match: 1.6Goals conceded per match: 2
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Derby County won 3-1.
Story
Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers: the story of the match
42' — Bolton Wanderers took the lead: 0-1. Ruben Rodrigues scored it. Half time: 0-1.
47' — Derby County equalised: 1-1. Jack Robinson scored it. 49' — Derby County completed the turnaround: 2-1. Ryan Nyambe scored it. 90' — Derby County extended the lead: 3-1. It came in the closing minutes. Derby County won 3-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Derby CountyDrawBolton Wanderers
Pre-match model estimate: Derby County 37%, draw 26%, Bolton Wanderers 37%.
Bolton Wanderers let a lead slip and lost 3-1 to Derby County at Pride Park. Rhian Brewster was our player of the match, rated 7.4 by the ScoreMondo model for Derby County. The match was played on Friday, 6 November 2026 at Pride Park in Derby (matchday 15). The attendance at Pride Park was 27,536.
How the match unfolded
Ruben Rodrigues opened the scoring for Bolton Wanderers after 42 minutes, set up by Gaizka Larrazabal. Bolton Wanderers led 1-0 at the break.
Derby County drew level at 1-1 on 47 minutes thanks to Jack Robinson. Derby County completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 49 minutes thanks to Ryan Nyambe, set up by Carlton Morris. Late on, in the 90th minute, Derby County extended their lead to 3-1.
Match statistics
Derby County had 7 shots (2 on target) to Bolton Wanderers' 11 (6). Expected goals (xG) 0.86 – 1.12: Bolton Wanderers created the better chances. Corners finished 4-6. Derby County's goalkeeper made 6 saves. Dangerous attacks: 169 for Bolton Wanderers, 92 for Derby County. Derby County committed 11 fouls to Bolton Wanderers' 9, and the offside count read 4-1.
Bolton Wanderers' yellow cards went to Luca Stephenson in the 62nd minute and Gaizka Larrazabal in the 95th minute.
Before kick-off Derby County were 23rd on 7 points and Bolton Wanderers 17th on 17 points. Derby County came into the match with 1 draw and 4 defeats from their last 5 matches — 10 without a win. Norwich City beat Derby County 4-0 last time out. Before kick-off, Bolton Wanderers' last 5 matches had brought 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Last time out, Bolton Wanderers beat Charlton Athletic1-0 away. The record between them over the last 10 matches reads 6-2-2 from Derby County's point of view. The last meeting, in 2024, ended in a 1-0 win for Derby County. Those 10 games produced 23 goals, an average of 2.3 per match.
The bigger picture
Derby County remain 23rd, now with 10 points. Bolton Wanderers slip to 18th (17 points), having started the day 17th. A 10-game wait for victory is over for Derby County. Bolton Wanderers have now scored in 4 consecutive matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
