Derby County vs Norwich City: the story of the match
8' — Norwich City took the lead: 0-1. Anthony Musaba scored it. 27' — Norwich City extended the lead: 0-2. Paris Maghoma scored it. 44' — Norwich City extended the lead: 0-3. Darlin Yongwa scored it. Half time: 0-3.
66' — Norwich City extended the lead: 0-4. Jovon Makama scored it. Norwich City won 0-4.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Derby CountyDrawNorwich City
Pre-match model estimate: Derby County 26%, draw 24%, Norwich City 50%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Derby County win in 26% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Norwich City win 50%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 58%. About 9.5 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Norwich City took the lead on 8 minutes thanks to Anthony Musaba. Norwich City extended their lead to 2-0 in the 27th minute: Paris Maghoma, set up by Jack Stacey. Norwich City extended their lead to 3-0 in the 44th minute: Darlin Yongwa. Half-time: 0-3, Norwich City in front.
Jovon Makama made it 4-0 for Norwich City after 66 minutes.
The statistics
Derby County had 5 shots (2 on target) to Norwich City's 11 (7). Derby County won 4 corners, Norwich City 5. Norwich City produced 51 dangerous attacks to Derby County's 34.
What it means
Derby County have now gone 10 matches without a win.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
