Wales vs Portugal (UEFA Nations League) kick-off time: 17 Nov 2026
Europe
UEFA Nations League Round 6
ScoreMondo estimate
MoreMost likely score: 0-2 (11%)
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Last 5 · Recent meetings
More- WalesLLWLL
- PortugalLWWWWScored in 5 matches in a row
- UEFA Nations LeaguePortugal1 - 0Wales
- Euro ChampionshipPortugal2 - 0Wales
UEFA Nations League
MoreLine-ups
Line-ups not announced yetOfficial line-ups usually come about an hour before kick-off.
Wales and Portugal meet on in UEFA Nations League.
Venue: Cardiff City Stadium.
In our records Wales and Portugal have met 2 times: Wales won 0, 0 ended level and Portugal won 2.
Their latest meeting (): Portugal 1-0 Wales.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulationsOne of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Wales 0.9 – 2.3 Portugal. Most frequent scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Both teams score in 54% of the simulated matches. About 9.8 corners on average. About 3.7 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
- Portugal: the stronger side on our resultsPOstrong
- Wales: home advantage in this competitionWAclear
Also considered
- Wales: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
- Portugal: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
- Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Portugal.
Preview
Wales vs Portugal: preview
Wales have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches. 4 of Wales's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 7. Portugal have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches. Portugal have scored in 5 matches in a row. 6 of Portugal's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 6.
In their last 2 meetings, Wales won 0, 0 ended level and Portugal won 2. Wales are in position 4 with 3 points, Portugal in position 1 with 12 points. A win could lift Wales as high as position 3.
Table by result
- A win can lift them as high as 3.
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
