Poland vs Sweden (UEFA Nations League) kick-off time: 17 Nov 2026
Europe
UEFA Nations League Round 6
ScoreMondo estimate
MoreMost likely score: 2-1 (9%)
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Last 5 · Recent meetings
More- PolandLLWLD
- SwedenWWDWWUnbeaten in 5 matches
- UEFA Nations LeagueSweden3 - 1Poland
- World Cup Europe QualificationSweden3 - 2Poland
- World Cup - Qualification EuropePoland2 - 0Sweden
UEFA Nations League
More| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 5 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Poland | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Romania | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Line-ups
Line-ups not announced yetOfficial line-ups usually come about an hour before kick-off.
Poland and Sweden meet on in UEFA Nations League.
Venue: Municipal Stadium Wroclaw.
In our records Poland and Sweden have met 4 times: Poland won 1, 0 ended level and Sweden won 3.
Their latest meeting (): Sweden 3-1 Poland.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulationsOne of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Poland 1.6 – 1.4 Sweden. Most frequent scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Both teams score in 61% of the simulated matches. About 9.8 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
- Sweden: the stronger side on our resultsSWstrong
- Poland: home advantage in this competitionPOstrong
Also considered
- Poland: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
- Sweden: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
- Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Poland.
Preview
Poland vs Sweden: preview
Poland have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches. 7 of Poland's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 6. Sweden have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches. Sweden are unbeaten in 5 matches. 7 of Sweden's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 8.
In their last 4 meetings, Poland won 1, 0 ended level and Sweden won 3. Poland are in position 3 with 4 points, Sweden in position 1 with 13 points.
Table by result
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
