One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
UE TonaKick-off0-0Vilassar de Mar
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals UE Tona 1.4 – 1.0 Vilassar de Mar. Most frequent scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%). Both teams score in 47% of the simulated matches. About 9.5 corners on average. About 5.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 27%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
UE TonaVilassar de Mar
UE Tona: the stronger side on our resultsUTclear
UE Tona: home advantage in this competitionUTstrong
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards UE Tona.
Why it matters: A win could put UE Tona top of the table.
Table by result
UE Tona8
A win can take them top.
Win1–3Draw3–6Loss6–8
Vilassar de Mar17Relegation
A win can lift them out of the danger zone (Relegation).
Win9–12Draw15–16Loss16–17
Some teams are level on points: goal difference decides (head-to-head in some leagues), so the order may change.
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
UE Tona go into the game 8th on 13 points, Vilassar de Mar 17th on 9 points. 4 points separate the sides, with UE Tona in front. UE Tona can climb to the top with victory. At 17th, Vilassar de Mar are in the Relegation zone.
Vilassar de Mar need to make up 1 point to climb out of the relegation zone.
Form guide
UE TonaDWDWWVilassar de MarWDDWD
UE Tona have 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 0. UE Tona are unbeaten in 5 matches. UE Tona's recent home record reads 2 wins and 3 defeats in 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 7. 6 of UE Tona's last 10 matches ended without a goal conceded.
Vilassar de Mar are unbeaten in their last 5 matches: 2 wins and 3 draws. Vilassar de Mar have scored in each of their last 6 matches. Vilassar de Mar are still waiting for a win on their travels: 3 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 away games. 6 of Vilassar de Mar's last 10 matches have had three or more goals.
Previous meetings
The record between them over the last 4 matches reads 3-0-1 from UE Tona's point of view. When they last met, on 3 May 2026, Vilassar de Mar won 3-1. There have been 11 goals in the 4 meetings, 2.8 a game.
Tercera Federacion, Group 12
