Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 7' — Malmo FF took the lead: 1-0. Diego García scored it. Half time: 1-0, with Hammarby IF applying more of the pressure.
53' — Hammarby IF equalised: 1-1. Victor Eriksson scored it. 58' — Hammarby IF completed the turnaround: 1-2. Montader Madjed scored it. 85' — Andrej Duric of Malmo FF was sent off. After 61' the momentum swung to Malmo FF. Hammarby IF won 1-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Malmo FFDrawHammarby IF
Pre-match model estimate: Malmo FF 21%, draw 21%, Hammarby IF 58%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Malmo FFHammarby IF
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min1239
Last 15 min4628
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Malmo FF win in 21% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Hammarby IF win 58%. Average goals 3.2; the most likely score is 1-2 (10%); both teams score in 60%. About 11.0 corners on average. About 3.3 yellow cards on average; a red card in 11%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Malmo FF took the lead on 7 minutes thanks to Diego García. Malmo FF led 1-0 at the break, although Hammarby IF had applied more pressure.
Hammarby IF drew level at 1-1 in the 53rd minute: Victor Eriksson. Hammarby IF completed the turnaround at 2-1 in the 58th minute: Montader Madjed. Malmo FF took over after the 61st minute, pinning Hammarby IF back. Malmo FF had a player sent off on 85 minutes: Andrej Duric.
Match statistics
On target it was 4-3, from 4 and 14 attempts respectively. Corners finished 1-5. Hammarby IF produced 91 dangerous attacks to Malmo FF's 46.
The bigger picture
Malmo FF stay 7th on 40 points. The result lifts Hammarby IF to 1st with 55 points, up from 2nd. Hammarby IF have now won 4 in a row.
Coming up
Next up for Hammarby IF: home to IF Elfsborg on Friday 6 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Allsvenskan
