70' — Juventus took the lead: 1-0. Kerim Alajbegovic scored it. 75' — Luca Marianucci of SSC Napoli was sent off. 87' — Juventus extended the lead: 2-0. Jérémie Boga scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Juventus won 2-0. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
JuventusDrawSSC Napoli
Pre-match model estimate: Juventus 45%, draw 27%, SSC Napoli 28%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Juventus win in 45% of the simulated matches, 27% end level and SSC Napoli win 28%. Average goals 2.4; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 48%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The shot count read 12-7, 4-1 on target. Juventus won 13 corners, SSC Napoli 4. Juventus produced 45 dangerous attacks to SSC Napoli's 27.
What it means
The result lifts Juventus to 7th with 17 points, up from 8th. SSC Napoli drop from 7th to 8th on 14 points. Juventus ended SSC Napoli's unbeaten run of 3 matches.
Coming up
Juventus' next match is away to Fiorentina on 8 November. SSC Napoli host Lazio next, on 8 November in Serie A.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Serie A
