Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0, with IF Elfsborg applying more of the pressure.
52' — Orgryte IS took the lead: 0-1. Tobias Sana scored it. 64' — IF Elfsborg equalised: 1-1. Júlíus Magnússon scored it. 90' — IF Elfsborg completed the turnaround: 2-1. Leo Östman scored it. It came in the closing minutes. IF Elfsborg won 2-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
IF ElfsborgDrawOrgryte IS
Pre-match model estimate: IF Elfsborg 71%, draw 18%, Orgryte IS 11%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
IF ElfsborgOrgryte IS
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min220
Last 15 min220
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): IF Elfsborg win in 71% of the simulated matches, 18% end level and Orgryte IS win 11%. Average goals 3.2; the most likely score is 2-0 (11%); both teams score in 51%. About 10.5 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 12%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The officials disallowed a Orgryte IS goal on 32 minutes. The first half ended 0-0, with IF Elfsborg the side applying more pressure.
Tobias Sana opened the scoring for Orgryte IS after 52 minutes. IF Elfsborg drew level at 1-1 in the 64th minute: Júlíus Magnússon. IF Elfsborg completed the turnaround at 2-1 in the 90th minute: Leo Östman.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 6-6, 2-2 on target. Corners finished 12-1.
The bigger picture
IF Elfsborg remain 5th, now with 46 points. Orgryte IS stay 15th on 19 points. A 3-game wait for victory is over for IF Elfsborg. Orgryte IS have now scored in 4 consecutive matches.
What’s next
Next up for IF Elfsborg: away at Hammarby IF on Friday 6 November. Orgryte IS' next match is at home against Vasteras SK on 7 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Allsvenskan
