Hammarby IF vs IF Elfsborg: the story of the match
40' — Hammarby IF took the lead: 1-0. Paulos Abraham scored it. Half time: 1-0.
58' — Hammarby IF extended the lead: 2-0. Paulos Abraham scored it. 65' — Hammarby IF extended the lead: 3-0. An own goal by Thomas Isherwood. 77' — Hammarby IF extended the lead: 4-0. Montader Madjed scored it. 81' — IF Elfsborg pulled one back: 4-1. Leo Östman scored it. Hammarby IF won 4-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Hammarby IFDrawIF Elfsborg
Pre-match model estimate: Hammarby IF 73%, draw 16%, IF Elfsborg 11%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Hammarby IF win in 73% of the simulated matches, 16% end level and IF Elfsborg win 11%. Average goals 3.2; the most likely score is 2-0 (12%); both teams score in 50%. About 10.8 corners on average. About 3.7 yellow cards on average; a red card in 13%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Hammarby IF took the lead in the 40th minute: Paulos Abraham. Half-time: 1-0, Hammarby IF in front.
Paulos Abraham made it 2-0 for Hammarby IF after 58 minutes. Hammarby IF extended their lead to 3-0 on 65 minutes thanks to an own goal from Thomas Isherwood. Hammarby IF extended their lead to 4-0 on 77 minutes thanks to Montader Madjed. IF Elfsborg pulled one back to make it 4-1 in the 81st minute: Leo Östman.
Match statistics
Hammarby IF had 15 shots (7 on target) to IF Elfsborg's 9 (2). Hammarby IF won 4 corners, IF Elfsborg 2.
What it means
The result lifts Hammarby IF to 1st with 58 points, up from 2nd. IF Elfsborg stay 5th on 46 points. Hammarby IF have now won 5 in a row. Hammarby IF ended IF Elfsborg's unbeaten run of 5 matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
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