Lens vs Toulouse (Ligue 1) kick-off time: 21 Nov 2026
France
Ligue 1 Round 11
ScoreMondo estimate
MoreMost likely score: 2-1 (10%)
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Last 5 · Recent meetings
More- LensLLLWL3 defeats in a row
- ToulouseWLDWD
- Coupe de FranceLens4 - 1Toulouse
- Ligue 1Lens3 - 2Toulouse
- Ligue 1Toulouse0 - 3Lens
- Per match
- Corners won4.6·4.0
- Yellow cards1.9·2.6
Ligue 1
More| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lorient | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 | Lens | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 | Strasbourg Alsace | 10 | -4 | 10 |
Line-ups
Line-ups not announced yetOfficial line-ups usually come about an hour before kick-off.
Lens and Toulouse meet on in Ligue 1.
Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
In our records Lens and Toulouse have met 10 times: Lens won 8, 1 ended level and Toulouse won 1.
Their latest meeting (): Lens 4-1 Toulouse.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulationsOne of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Lens 1.9 – 1.2 Toulouse. Most frequent scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Both teams score in 58% of the simulated matches. About 8.6 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 14%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
- Lens: the stronger side on our resultsLEstrong
- Lens: home advantage in this competitionLEstrong
- Lens: plays in a continental competition this season; such teams have done a little better in their other matches than our model expectedLEstrong
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
Pre-match analysis
Not started
- Model estimateyes
Before kick-off the model leans towards Lens.
Preview
Lens vs Toulouse: preview
Lens have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches. Lens have lost 3 matches in a row. 7 of Lens's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 6. Toulouse have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches. 7 of Toulouse's last 10 matches had 3 or more goals, and both sides scored in 6.
In their last 10 meetings, Lens won 8, 1 ended level and Toulouse won 1. Lens are in position 11 with 13 points, Toulouse in position 12 with 13 points. A win could lift Lens as high as position 7. A win could lift Toulouse as high as position 7.
Table by result
- A win can lift them as high as 7.
- A defeat drops them to 12.
- A win can lift them as high as 7.
Some teams are level on points: goal difference decides (head-to-head in some leagues), so the order may change.
Worked out from the pre-match table and the live scores in the league.
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
