Pre-match model estimate: Toulouse 63%, draw 19%, ES Troyes 18%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Toulouse win in 63% of the simulated matches, 19% end level and ES Troyes win 18%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 59%. About 9.1 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Toulouse had 7 shots (4 on target) to ES Troyes' 6 (0). Toulouse won 4 corners, ES Troyes 2.
What it means
The result lifts Toulouse to 11th with 10 points, up from 12th. ES Troyes stay 17th on 5 points. Toulouse's run of 5 matches with a goal comes to an end. ES Troyes have now gone 7 matches without a win. Across 11 meetings in our records: 6 wins for Toulouse and 5 draws.
Coming up
Toulouse's next match is away to Olympique de Marseille on 1 November. ES Troyes host Le Mans next, on 31 October in Ligue 1.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Ligue 1
