One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
ToulouseKick-off0-0Strasbourg Alsace
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Toulouse 1.6 – 1.3 Strasbourg Alsace. Most frequent scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Both teams score in 58% of the simulated matches. About 8.3 corners on average. About 4.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
A 3-1 home win for Toulouse against Strasbourg Alsace in the League 1. The half-time score was 1-0. Santiago Hidalgo was our player of the match, rated 7.3 by the ScoreMondo model for Toulouse. Friday 6 November, Stadium Municipal de Toulouse (Toulouse): Toulouse against Strasbourg Alsace on matchday 10, kick-off 19:45.
The story of the match
Toulouse took the lead in the 45th minute through Santiago Hidalgo. It was Toulouse 1-0 Strasbourg Alsace at half-time.
VAR checked and confirmed the Toulouse goal on 49 minutes. Mark McKenzie made it 2-0 for Toulouse after 56 minutes, set up by Cristian Cásseres Jr.. Strasbourg Alsace pulled one back to make it 2-1 on 68 minutes thanks to Giovanni Reyna. Toulouse extended their lead to 3-1 on 76 minutes thanks to Thomas Jørgensen, set up by Rasmus Nicolaisen.
What the numbers say
Corners finished 7-1. The referee showed 6 yellow cards, 3 to Toulouse and 3 to Strasbourg Alsace. Fouls: 17 by Toulouse, 15 by Strasbourg Alsace; offsides 1-1.
Behind him, Mark McKenzie at 7.1, Giovanni Reyna at 7.0 and Cristian Cásseres Jr. at 6.9 were next in the ScoreMondo ratings. Toulouse made 2 changes: Jacen Russell-Rowe for Santiago Hidalgo (67') and Ilyas Azizi for Sion Oppong (72'). From the Strasbourg Alsace bench came Samuel Amo-Ameyaw on 62 minutes, Sebastian Nanasi on 62 minutes, Jacobo Ortega Conde on 62 minutes and Diogo Sousa on 70 minutes, among 5 changes.
Before the match
The table had Toulouse 12th (10 points) and Strasbourg Alsace 13th (10 points) going into the game. Before kick-off, Toulouse's last 5 matches had brought 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats. Toulouse lost 2-0 away to Olympique de Marseille in their last match. Strasbourg Alsace came into the match with 1 win and 4 defeats from their last 5 matches. Their most recent game was a 5-1 win over AJ Auxerre for Strasbourg Alsace. The record between them over the last 4 matches reads 2-0-2 from Toulouse's point of view. When they last met, on 3 May 2026, Toulouse won 2-1. There have been 10 goals in the 4 meetings, 2.5 a game. Referee M. Vernice showed 6 yellow cards; the average in our records is 4.6 yellows per game over 48 matches.
What it means
Toulouse stay 12th on 13 points. Strasbourg Alsace remain 13th, now with 10 points.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
