Lens vs Olympique de Marseille: the story of the match
2' — Olympique de Marseille took the lead: 0-1. Amine Gouiri scored it. 20' — Lens equalised: 1-1. Florian Thauvin scored it. Half time: 1-1.
82' — Olympique de Marseille went back in front: 1-2. Keyliane Abdallah scored it. Olympique de Marseille won 1-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
LensDrawOlympique de Marseille
Pre-match model estimate: Lens 43%, draw 23%, Olympique de Marseille 34%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Lens win in 43% of the simulated matches, 23% end level and Olympique de Marseille win 34%. Average goals 3.2; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 63%. About 8.6 corners on average. About 3.3 yellow cards on average; a red card in 13%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Amine Gouiri opened the scoring for Olympique de Marseille after 2 minutes. Lens drew level at 1-1 on 20 minutes thanks to Florian Thauvin, set up by Florian Sotoca. The first half ended 1-1.
Olympique de Marseille went 2-1 up in the 82nd minute: Keyliane Abdallah.
Match statistics
Lens had 12 shots (6 on target) to Olympique de Marseille's 9 (5). Corners finished 4-6. Dangerous attacks: 64 for Olympique de Marseille, 43 for Lens.
The bigger picture
Lens slip to 11th (13 points), having started the day 9th. Olympique de Marseille climb from 6th to 4th on 18 points. That is 4 straight wins for Olympique de Marseille.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
