Fulham vs Newcastle United: the story of the match
Fulham started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0.
80' — Newcastle United took the lead: 0-1. Jacob Murphy scored it. 83' — Fulham equalised: 1-1. Rodrigo Muniz scored it. After 91' the momentum swung to Fulham. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FulhamDrawNewcastle United
Pre-match model estimate: Fulham 44%, draw 27%, Newcastle United 29%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
FulhamNewcastle United
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min390
Last 15 min6222
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Fulham win in 44% of the simulated matches, 27% end level and Newcastle United win 29%. Average goals 2.4; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 48%. About 9.9 corners on average. About 4.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 24%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Fulham started on the front foot, pressing for the first 15 minutes. The officials disallowed a Newcastle United goal on 35 minutes. It was Fulham 0-0 Newcastle United at half-time.
Newcastle United took the lead in the 80th minute: Jacob Murphy. Rodrigo Muniz equalised for Fulham at 1-1 after 83 minutes. From the 91st minute the pressure shifted towards Fulham.
The statistics
On target it was 5-6, from 6 and 7 attempts respectively. Corners finished 3-3. Dangerous attacks: 58 for Fulham, 33 for Newcastle United.
What it means
Fulham remain 15th, now with 10 points. Newcastle United climb from 13th to 11th on 12 points. Across 5 meetings in our records: 3 wins for Fulham, 1 win for Newcastle United and 1 draw.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Premier League
