Crystal Palace vs Liverpool: the story of the match
Liverpool started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 40' — Liverpool took the lead: 0-1. Alexis Mac Allister scored it. Half time: 0-1.
54' — Liverpool extended the lead: 0-2. Florian Wirtz scored it. 89' — Liverpool extended the lead: 0-3. Alexander Isak scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — Crystal Palace pulled one back: 1-3. It came in the closing minutes. After 61' the momentum swung to Crystal Palace. Liverpool won 1-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Crystal PalaceDrawLiverpool
Pre-match model estimate: Crystal Palace 29%, draw 25%, Liverpool 46%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Crystal PalaceLiverpool
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min5312
Last 15 min5368
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Crystal Palace win in 29% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Liverpool win 46%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 54%. About 10.3 corners on average. About 3.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 21%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Liverpool got the better of Crystal Palace, winning 3-1 at Selhurst Park. It was 0-1 at half-time.
The story of the match
Liverpool started on the front foot, pressing for the first 15 minutes. The officials disallowed a Crystal Palace goal on 35 minutes. Liverpool took the lead in the 40th minute: Alexis Mac Allister, set up by Dominik Szoboszlai. It was Crystal Palace 0-1 Liverpool at half-time.
Liverpool extended their lead to 2-0 on 54 minutes thanks to Florian Wirtz, set up by Bradley Barcola. From the 61st minute the pressure shifted towards Crystal Palace. Late on, in the 89th minute, Liverpool extended their lead to 3-0 through Alexander Isak, set up by Florian Wirtz. Crystal Palace pulled one back to make it 1-3 on 90 minutes.
The statistics
On target it was 7-8, from 14 and 12 attempts respectively. Corners finished 4-7.
What it means
Crystal Palace slip to 20th (7 points), having started the day 18th. Liverpool climb from 5th to 4th on 18 points. A 3-game wait for victory is over for Liverpool.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
