One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Preparing the simulation…
Nottingham ForestKick-off0-0Manchester City
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Nottingham Forest win in 20% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Manchester City win 59%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 0-1 (10%); both teams score in 54%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Previous meetings and form
Head to head
2Nottingham Forest2Draws6Manchester City
Goals: 8 - 20 · last 10 meetings
Premier LeagueManchester City2 - 2Nottingham Forest
Premier LeagueNottingham Forest1 - 2Manchester City
FA CupNottingham Forest0 - 2Manchester City
Premier LeagueNottingham Forest1 - 0Manchester City
Premier LeagueManchester City3 - 0Nottingham Forest
Premier LeagueNottingham Forest0 - 2Manchester City
Premier LeagueManchester City2 - 0Nottingham Forest
Premier LeagueNottingham Forest1 - 1Manchester City
Premier LeagueManchester City6 - 0Nottingham Forest
Goals scored per match: 2.5Goals conceded per match: 2
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Nottingham Forest won 3-1.
Story
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: the story of the match
6' — Nottingham Forest took the lead: 1-0. Jair Cunha scored it. 18' — Nottingham Forest extended the lead: 2-0. Liam Delap scored it. Half time: 2-0.
52' — Manchester City pulled one back: 2-1. Rayan Cherki scored it. 73' — Nottingham Forest extended the lead: 3-1. Liam Delap scored it. Nottingham Forest won 3-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Nottingham ForestDrawManchester City
Pre-match model estimate: Nottingham Forest 20%, draw 21%, Manchester City 59%.
Nottingham Forest got the better of Manchester City, winning 3-1 at The City Ground. Nottingham Forest owed a lot to Liam Delap, who struck twice. It was 2-0 at half-time. Player of the match: Liam Delap of Nottingham Forest, with a ScoreMondo rating of 8.2. The match was played on Saturday, 7 November 2026 at The City Ground in Nottingham (matchday 10). The attendance at The City Ground was 30,762.
The story of the match
Nottingham Forest took the lead in the 6th minute through Jair Cunha. Nottingham Forest extended their lead to 2-0 in the 18th minute through Liam Delap, set up by Xaver Schlager. Nottingham Forest led 2-0 at the break.
Manchester City pulled one back to make it 2-1 in the 52nd minute through Rayan Cherki. The officials disallowed a Manchester City goal on 59 minutes. Liam Delap made it 3-1 for Nottingham Forest after 73 minutes, set up by Morgan Gibbs-White.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 9-11, 6-4 on target. Corners finished 3-7. The referee showed 4 yellow cards, 4 to Nottingham Forest and 0 to Manchester City. Dangerous attacks: 74 for Manchester City, 42 for Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest committed 13 fouls to Manchester City's 7, and the offside count read 2-0.
Nottingham Forest's yellow cards went to James McAtee in the 64th minute, Dan Ndoye in the 69th minute, Luca Netz in the 94th minute and Igor Jesus in the 95th minute.
Ratings and substitutions
The best ScoreMondo ratings after the player of the match went to Jair Cunha (Nottingham Forest, 7.1), Morgan Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest, 6.9) and Xaver Schlager (Nottingham Forest, 6.9). From the Nottingham Forest bench came Dan Ndoye on 65 minutes, Luca Netz on 65 minutes, Ibrahim Sangaré on 79 minutes and Igor Jesus on 87 minutes. Manchester City made 3 changes: Matheus Nunes for Marc Guéhi (45'), Nico O'Reilly for Josko Gvardiol (45') and Phil Foden for Enzo Fernández (78').
Before the match
Before kick-off Nottingham Forest were 19th on 6 points and Manchester City 2nd on 21 points. Nottingham Forest came into the match with 1 draw and 4 defeats from their last 5 matches — 5 without a win. Brentford beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 last time out. Before kick-off, Manchester City's last 5 matches had brought 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Last time out, Manchester City beat RB Leipzig3-2 away. Nottingham Forest and Manchester City have met 10 times in our records: 2 wins for Nottingham Forest, 6 for Manchester City and 2 draws. The last meeting, in 2026 in the Premier League, finished 2-2. Those 10 games produced 28 goals, an average of 2.8 per match. Samuel Barrott was the referee, averaging 4.1 yellow cards per match across 61 matches in our records.
The bigger picture
Nottingham Forest climb from 19th to 16th on 9 points. Manchester City slip to 3rd (21 points), having started the day 2nd. A 5-game wait for victory is over for Nottingham Forest.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
