Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: the story of the match
10' — Atletico Madrid took the lead: 1-0. Giuliano Simeone scored it. 45' — Barcelona equalised: 1-1. Fermín López scored it. Half time: 1-1.
66' — Barcelona completed the turnaround: 1-2. Fermín López scored it. Barcelona won 1-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Atletico MadridDrawBarcelona
Pre-match model estimate: Atletico Madrid 35%, draw 24%, Barcelona 41%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Atletico Madrid win in 35% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Barcelona win 41%. Average goals 3.2; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 64%. About 9.5 corners on average. About 4.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Atletico Madrid let a lead slip and lost 2-1 to Barcelona at Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Barcelona owed a lot to Fermín López, who struck twice. The attendance at Riyadh Air Metropolitano was 69,788.
How the match unfolded
Giuliano Simeone opened the scoring for Atletico Madrid after 10 minutes, set up by Julián Álvarez. The officials disallowed a Atletico Madrid goal on 27 minutes. Fermín López equalised for Barcelona at 1-1 after 45 minutes. It was Atletico Madrid 1-1 Barcelona at half-time.
Fermín López turned the game around for Barcelona at 2-1 after 66 minutes, set up by Lamine Yamal.
The statistics
Corners finished 4-2.
The bigger picture
Atletico Madrid slip to 3rd (28 points), having started the day 2nd. Barcelona remain 1st, now with 33 points. Barcelona have now scored in 12 consecutive matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
