5' — Sporting CP took the lead: 1-0. Luis Suárez scored from the penalty spot. 15' — LASK Linz equalised: 1-1. Christoph Lang scored it. Half time: 1-1.
63' — LASK Linz completed the turnaround: 1-2. Sasa Kalajdzic scored it. 68' — LASK Linz extended the lead: 1-3. Krystof Danek scored it. 89' — Sporting CP pulled one back: 2-3. Luis Suárez scored it. It came in the closing minutes. LASK Linz won 2-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Sporting CP win in 48% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and LASK Linz win 31%. Average goals 3.7; the most likely score is 2-1 (9%); both teams score in 70%. About 9.9 corners on average. About 3.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Sporting CP took the lead on 5 minutes thanks to Luis Suárez from the penalty spot. Christoph Lang equalised for LASK Linz at 1-1 after 15 minutes, set up by Kasper Jørgensen. It was Sporting CP 1-1 LASK Linz at half-time.
LASK Linz completed the turnaround at 2-1 in the 63rd minute: Sasa Kalajdzic, set up by Robert Ljubicic. Just 5 minutes later (68') LASK Linz extended their lead to 3-1, Krystof Danek on target, set up by Samuel Adeniran. Sporting CP pulled one back to make it 2-3 in the 89th minute: Luis Suárez.
The statistics
The shot count read 11-9, 4-7 on target. Corners finished 7-4. Dangerous attacks: 75 for Sporting CP, 52 for LASK Linz.
What the result means
Sporting CP slip to 12th (6 points), having started the day 7th. LASK Linz climb from 32nd to 24th on 3 points. Sporting CP's 9-match unbeaten run is over. LASK Linz beat Sporting CP for the first time since 2020.
Coming up
Sporting CP visit Casa Pia AC next, on 30 October. Next up for LASK Linz: home to SV Ried on Wednesday 28 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
UEFA Champions League
