38' — SV Ried took the lead: 0-1. Y. Maart scored it. Half time: 0-1.
48' — SV Ried extended the lead: 0-2. I. Kiese scored it. 51' — LASK Linz pulled one back: 1-2. J. Tornich scored it. 76' — SV Ried extended the lead: 1-3. Y. Maart scored it. 84' — LASK Linz pulled one back: 2-3. R. Ljubicic scored it. 90' — LASK Linz equalised: 3-3. X. Mbuyamba scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 111' — LASK Linz completed the turnaround: 4-3. M. Usor scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 120' — SV Ried equalised: 4-4. P. Pomer scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 120' — LASK Linz completed the turnaround: 5-4. S. Adeniran scored it. It came in the closing minutes. LASK Linz won 5-4. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
LASK LinzDrawSV Ried
Pre-match model estimate: LASK Linz 69%, draw 16%, SV Ried 15%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): LASK Linz win in 69% of the simulated matches, 16% end level and SV Ried win 15%. Average goals 3.7; the most likely score is 2-1 (9%); both teams score in 62%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
LASK Linz came from behind to beat SV Ried5-4 in the OFB Cup. SV Ried owed a lot to Y. Maart, who struck twice.
Key moments
The officials disallowed a LASK Linz goal on 22 minutes. Y. Maart opened the scoring for SV Ried after 38 minutes. SV Ried led 1-0 at the break.
SV Ried extended their lead to 2-0 on 48 minutes thanks to I. Kiese. LASK Linz pulled one back to make it 1-2 in the 51st minute: J. Tornich, set up by K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen. SV Ried extended their lead to 3-1 on 76 minutes thanks to Y. Maart. R. Ljubicic reduced the deficit for LASK Linz to 2-3 after 84 minutes. Late on, in the 90th minute, LASK Linz drew level at 3-3 through X. Mbuyamba, set up by S. Horvath.
M. Usor turned the game around for LASK Linz at 4-3 after 111 minutes, set up by A. Andrade. SV Ried drew level at 4-4 on 120 minutes thanks to P. Pomer. Late on, in the 120th minute, LASK Linz completed the turnaround at 5-4 through S. Adeniran, set up by M. Usor.
What the numbers say
Corners finished 10-0.
What the result means
LASK Linz have now scored in 5 consecutive matches. SV Ried's 7-match unbeaten run is over.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
