25' — Arsenal took the lead: 0-1. Eberechi Eze scored it. 35' — Bayern Munich equalised: 1-1. Alphonso Davies scored it. Half time: 1-1.
61' — Bayern Munich completed the turnaround: 2-1. Harry Kane scored from the penalty spot. 82' — Arsenal equalised: 2-2. Declan Rice scored it. The match ended 2-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Bayern MunichDrawArsenal
Pre-match model estimate: Bayern Munich 38%, draw 21%, Arsenal 41%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Bayern Munich win in 38% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Arsenal win 41%. Average goals 3.7; the most likely score is 1-1 (9%); both teams score in 71%. About 10.3 corners on average. About 3.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 15%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Eberechi Eze opened the scoring for Arsenal after 25 minutes, set up by Martin Ødegaard. Bayern Munich drew level at 1-1 in the 35th minute: Alphonso Davies, set up by Harry Kane. Half-time: 1-1 between Bayern Munich and Arsenal.
Bayern Munich completed the turnaround at 2-1 in the 61st minute: Harry Kane from the penalty spot. Arsenal drew level at 2-2 in the 82nd minute: Declan Rice, set up by Viktor Gyökeres.
The statistics
Bayern Munich had 10 shots (5 on target) to Arsenal's 9 (5). Corners finished 3-5.
The bigger picture
Bayern Munich slip to 14th (5 points), having started the day 12th. Arsenal climb from 8th to 7th on 7 points. Bayern Munich are now unbeaten in 11 matches. Arsenal's winning streak stops at 3. Across 10 meetings in our records: 4 wins for Bayern Munich, 3 wins for Arsenal and 3 draws.
Next fixtures
Bayern Munich host 1.FC Magdeburg next, on 28 October. Next up for Arsenal: away at Liverpool on Sunday 1 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
UEFA Champions League
