44' — Real Madrid took the lead: 1-0. Bernardo Silva scored it. Half time: 1-0.
52' — Real Madrid extended the lead: 2-0. Arda Güler scored it. 83' — Real Madrid extended the lead: 3-0. Kylian Mbappé scored it. 85' — RB Leipzig pulled one back: 3-1. Tidiam Gomis scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 87' — Real Madrid extended the lead: 4-1. Yan Diomande scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Real Madrid won 4-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Real MadridDrawRB Leipzig
Pre-match model estimate: Real Madrid 59%, draw 19%, RB Leipzig 22%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Real Madrid win in 59% of the simulated matches, 19% end level and RB Leipzig win 22%. Average goals 3.8; the most likely score is 2-1 (9%); both teams score in 69%. About 10.2 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
A 4-1 rout: Real Madrid swept RB Leipzig aside at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium. It was 1-0 at half-time.
How the match unfolded
Bernardo Silva opened the scoring for Real Madrid after 44 minutes. Half-time: 1-0, Real Madrid in front.
Real Madrid extended their lead to 2-0 on 52 minutes thanks to Arda Güler, set up by Kylian Mbappé. Real Madrid extended their lead to 3-0 on 83 minutes thanks to Kylian Mbappé, set up by Yan Diomande. RB Leipzig pulled one back to make it 3-1 in the 85th minute: Tidiam Gomis, set up by Christoph Baumgartner. Real Madrid extended their lead to 4-1 on 87 minutes thanks to Yan Diomande, set up by Brahim Díaz.
The statistics
On target it was 10-7, from 21 and 10 attempts respectively. Corners finished 7-1. Dangerous attacks: 52 for Real Madrid, 27 for RB Leipzig.
What the result means
That is 4 straight wins for Real Madrid. RB Leipzig have now scored in 4 consecutive matches.
What’s next
Real Madrid's next match is away to Valencia on 7 November. RB Leipzig host Augsburg next, on 7 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
