Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk: the story of the match
Half time: 0-0.
68' — Alessandro Bastoni of Inter Milan was sent off. 77' — Inter Milan took the lead: 1-0. Carlos Augusto scored it. Inter Milan won 1-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Inter MilanDrawShakhtar Donetsk
Pre-match model estimate: Inter Milan 52%, draw 20%, Shakhtar Donetsk 28%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Inter Milan win in 52% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and Shakhtar Donetsk win 28%. Average goals 3.7; the most likely score is 2-1 (9%); both teams score in 70%. About 9.6 corners on average. About 3.9 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Inter Milan had 11 shots (5 on target) to Shakhtar Donetsk's 10 (5). Inter Milan won 5 corners, Shakhtar Donetsk 4.
What it means
The result lifts Inter Milan to 20th with 3 points, up from 29th. Shakhtar Donetsk drop from 11th to 17th on 4 points. Inter Milan have now scored in 11 consecutive matches. Inter Milan ended Shakhtar Donetsk's unbeaten run of 9 matches. It is Inter Milan's first win against Shakhtar Donetsk since 2021.
What’s next
Inter Milan visit Venezia next, on 28 October. Next up for Shakhtar Donetsk: home to FC Obolon Kyiv on Friday 30 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
UEFA Champions League
