Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 4' — Fiorentina took the lead: 1-0. Mateo Pellegrino scored it. 32' — Juventus equalised: 1-1. Nick Woltemade scored it. Half time: 1-1, with Juventus applying more of the pressure.
54' — Fiorentina went back in front: 2-1. Alieu Njie scored it. 67' — Juventus equalised: 2-2. Bremer scored it. After 91' the momentum swung to Fiorentina. The match ended 2-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FiorentinaDrawJuventus
Pre-match model estimate: Fiorentina 30%, draw 26%, Juventus 44%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
FiorentinaJuventus
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min8631
Last 15 min7822
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Fiorentina win in 30% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and Juventus win 44%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 54%. About 10.2 corners on average. About 4.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Fiorentina went 2-1 up on 54 minutes thanks to Alieu Njie. Juventus drew level at 2-2 in the 67th minute: Bremer. The officials disallowed a Fiorentina goal on 83 minutes. From the 91st minute the pressure shifted towards Fiorentina.
The statistics
The shot count read 16-13, 6-5 on target. Corners finished 5-12.
The bigger picture
Fiorentina climb from 16th to 15th on 9 points. Juventus remain 7th, now with 18 points. Fiorentina have now scored in 11 consecutive matches. Across 5 meetings in our records: 2 wins for Fiorentina and 3 draws.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
