One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Preparing the simulation…
Heracles AlmeloKick-off0-0Roda JC Kerkrade
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Heracles Almelo win in 67% of the simulated matches, 19% end level and Roda JC Kerkrade win 14%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 2-0 (11%); both teams score in 53%. About 11.4 corners on average. About 3.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
Head to head
5Heracles Almelo2Draws1Roda JC Kerkrade
Goals: 14 - 11 · last 8 meetings
Eerste DivisieHeracles Almelo1 - 0Roda JC Kerkrade
Eerste DivisieRoda JC Kerkrade1 - 3Heracles Almelo
Goals scored per match: 1.3Goals conceded per match: 1.2
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Heracles Almelo won 5-1.
Story
Heracles Almelo vs Roda JC Kerkrade: the story of the match
7' — Heracles Almelo took the lead: 1-0. Tristan Van Gilst scored it. 9' — Roda JC Kerkrade equalised: 1-1. Anthony van der Hurk scored from the penalty spot. 25' — Heracles Almelo went back in front: 2-1. Jean-Paul N'Djoli scored it. 45' — Heracles Almelo extended the lead: 3-1. Jean-Paul N'Djoli scored it. Half time: 3-1.
51' — Heracles Almelo extended the lead: 4-1. Tristan Van Gilst scored it. 67' — Heracles Almelo extended the lead: 5-1. Tristan Van Gilst scored it. Heracles Almelo won 5-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Heracles AlmeloDrawRoda JC Kerkrade
Pre-match model estimate: Heracles Almelo 67%, draw 19%, Roda JC Kerkrade 14%.
Heracles Almelo thrashed Roda JC Kerkrade5-1 in the Eerste Divisie. Tristan Van Gilst was the star with 3 goals for Heracles Almelo. The half-time score was 3-1. Player of the match: Tristan Van Gilst of Heracles Almelo, with a ScoreMondo rating of 9.2. Friday 6 November, Erve Asito (Almelo): Heracles Almelo against Roda JC Kerkrade on matchday 14, kick-off 19:00.
Key moments
Heracles Almelo took the lead on 7 minutes thanks to Tristan Van Gilst. Just 2 minutes later (9') Roda JC Kerkrade drew level at 1-1, Anthony van der Hurk from the penalty spot on target. Jean-Paul N'Djoli put Heracles Almelo 2-1 ahead after 25 minutes. Heracles Almelo extended their lead to 3-1 on 45 minutes thanks to Jean-Paul N'Djoli. It was Heracles Almelo 3-1 Roda JC Kerkrade at half-time.
Heracles Almelo extended their lead to 4-1 on 51 minutes thanks to Tristan Van Gilst. Heracles Almelo extended their lead to 5-1 in the 67th minute through Tristan Van Gilst.
What the numbers say
Heracles Almelo won 6 corners, Roda JC Kerkrade 2. Fouls: 7 by Heracles Almelo, 4 by Roda JC Kerkrade.
The table had Heracles Almelo 1st (32 points) and Roda JC Kerkrade 4th (25 points) going into the game. Before kick-off, Heracles Almelo's last 5 matches had brought 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. Last time out, Heracles Almelo beat TOP Oss2-0 at home. Roda JC Kerkrade came into the match with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 matches — unbeaten in 5. Their most recent game was a 2-1 win over Jong AZ Alkmaar for Roda JC Kerkrade. Heracles Almelo and Roda JC Kerkrade have met 8 times in our records: 5 wins for Heracles Almelo, 1 for Roda JC Kerkrade and 2 draws. When they last met, on 14 April 2023, Heracles Almelo won 1-0. There have been 25 goals in the 8 meetings, 3.1 a game.
The bigger picture
Heracles Almelo stay 1st on 35 points. Roda JC Kerkrade drop from 4th to 5th on 25 points. Heracles Almelo ended Roda JC Kerkrade's unbeaten run of 5 matches. It is Heracles Almelo's first win against Roda JC Kerkrade since 2023.
Coming up
Heracles Almelo's next match is away to FC Dordrecht on 14 November. Roda JC Kerkrade host FC Volendam next, on 14 November in the Eerste Divisie.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Eerste Divisie
