NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo: the story of the match
11' — NAC Breda took the lead: 1-0. Charles-Andreas Brym scored it. 19' — Heracles Almelo equalised: 1-1. Tristan Van Gilst scored from the penalty spot. Half time: 1-1.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): NAC Breda win in 33% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and Heracles Almelo win 45%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 65%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Charles-Andreas Brym opened the scoring for NAC Breda after 11 minutes. Heracles Almelo drew level at 1-1 in the 19th minute: Tristan Van Gilst from the penalty spot. The first half ended 1-1.
Match statistics
Corners finished 5-5.
What it means
NAC Breda are now unbeaten in 6 matches. Heracles Almelo extend their unbeaten run to 5 matches. Across 11 meetings in our records: 4 wins for NAC Breda, 5 wins for Heracles Almelo and 2 draws.
Next fixtures
NAC Breda's next match is at home against Emmen on 14 November. Heracles Almelo visit FC Dordrecht next, on 14 November in the Eerste Divisie.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Eerste Divisie
