Roda JC Kerkrade vs De Graafschap: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0.
84' — Roda JC Kerkrade took the lead: 1-0. Mokrane Bentoumi scored it. After 46' the momentum swung to Roda JC Kerkrade. After 61' the momentum swung to De Graafschap. Roda JC Kerkrade won 1-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Roda JC KerkradeDrawDe Graafschap
Pre-match model estimate: Roda JC Kerkrade 47%, draw 24%, De Graafschap 29%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Roda JC KerkradeDe Graafschap
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min8065
Last 15 min9078
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Roda JC Kerkrade win in 47% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and De Graafschap win 29%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 57%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
It was Roda JC Kerkrade 0-0 De Graafschap at half-time.
From the 46th minute the pressure shifted towards Roda JC Kerkrade. De Graafschap took over after the 61st minute, pinning Roda JC Kerkrade back. Roda JC Kerkrade took the lead on 84 minutes thanks to Mokrane Bentoumi.
What the numbers say
On target it was 3-7, from 6 and 11 attempts respectively. Corners finished 8-4. Roda JC Kerkrade's goalkeeper made 7 saves. Dangerous attacks: 186 for Roda JC Kerkrade, 170 for De Graafschap.
What the result means
Roda JC Kerkrade are now unbeaten in 4 matches. De Graafschap's run of 7 matches with a goal comes to an end.
Coming up
Next up for Roda JC Kerkrade: home to Jong AZ Alkmaar on Friday 30 October. De Graafschap's next match is away to FC Volendam on 30 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
KNVB Cup
