Heracles Almelo vs TOP Oss: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 10' — Heracles Almelo took the lead: 1-0. An own goal by Lars Mol. Half time: 1-0, with Heracles Almelo applying more of the pressure.
90' — Heracles Almelo extended the lead: 2-0. Sem Scheperman scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Heracles Almelo won 2-0. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Heracles AlmeloDrawTOP Oss
Pre-match model estimate: Heracles Almelo 83%, draw 11%, TOP Oss 6%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Heracles AlmeloTOP Oss
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min7891
Last 15 min9675
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Heracles Almelo win in 83% of the simulated matches, 11% end level and TOP Oss win 6%. Average goals 3.8; the most likely score is 3-0 (11%); both teams score in 50%. About 11.0 corners on average. About 3.9 yellow cards on average; a red card in 15%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Heracles Almelo beat TOP Oss2-0 without conceding at Erve Asito. The half-time score was 1-0.
The story of the match
Heracles Almelo took the lead in the 10th minute: an own goal from Lars Mol. Heracles Almelo led 1-0 at the break.
Heracles Almelo extended their lead to 2-0 in the 90th minute: Sem Scheperman.
The statistics
The shot count read 36-11, 8-0 on target. Heracles Almelo won 13 corners, TOP Oss 4. 8 saves came from the TOP Oss goalkeeper. Heracles Almelo produced 299 dangerous attacks to TOP Oss' 122.
What the result means
Heracles Almelo stay 1st on 32 points. TOP Oss remain 15th, now with 13 points. TOP Oss' run of 5 matches with a goal comes to an end. It is Heracles Almelo's first win against TOP Oss since 2023.
Eerste Divisie
