Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 23' — Recreativo Huelva took the lead: 1-0. Alejandro Marín Díaz scored it. 41' — Roan Riera of Recreativo Huelva was sent off. 44' — Rayo Vallecano equalised: 1-1. Alexandre Alemão scored from the penalty spot. Half time: 1-1.
After 61' the momentum swung to Rayo Vallecano. The match ended 1-1.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Recreativo HuelvaRayo Vallecano
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min061
Last 15 min038
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2 (no dangerous-attack data for this match).
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Recreativo Huelva win in 13% of the simulated matches, 18% end level and Rayo Vallecano win 69%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 0-2 (12%); both teams score in 51%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Alejandro Marín Díaz opened the scoring for Recreativo Huelva after 23 minutes, set up by Luis Dasilva Rodríguez. Roan Riera saw a straight red card in the 41st minute, leaving Recreativo Huelva short-handed. Rayo Vallecano drew level at 1-1 in the 44th minute: Alexandre Alemão from the penalty spot. The first half ended 1-1.
From the 61st minute the pressure shifted towards Rayo Vallecano.
Match statistics
Corners finished 0-14.
What the result means
Recreativo Huelva are now unbeaten in 10 matches. The wait for a win goes on for Rayo Vallecano: 4 matches now. Across 11 meetings in our records: 3 wins for Recreativo Huelva, 2 wins for Rayo Vallecano and 6 draws.
Coming up
Rayo Vallecano's next match is at home against Celta de Vigo on 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Copa del Rey
