RSD Alcala vs UD Las Palmas: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0, with UD Las Palmas applying more of the pressure.
49' — UD Las Palmas took the lead: 0-1. Kirian Rodríguez scored it. 69' — RSD Alcala equalised: 1-1. Luis Simón Pecharromán scored it. 96' — UD Las Palmas went back in front: 1-2. Kirian Rodríguez scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 105' — UD Las Palmas extended the lead: 1-3. Manu Fuster scored it. It came in the closing minutes. After 46' the momentum swung to RSD Alcala. After 91' the momentum swung to UD Las Palmas. UD Las Palmas won 1-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
RSD AlcalaDrawUD Las Palmas
Pre-match model estimate: RSD Alcala 17%, draw 21%, UD Las Palmas 62%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
RSD AlcalaUD Las Palmas
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min083
Last 15 min1975
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): RSD Alcala win in 17% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and UD Las Palmas win 62%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 0-1 (12%); both teams score in 50%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The officials disallowed a RSD Alcala goal on 26 minutes. It was RSD Alcala 0-0 UD Las Palmas at half-time; UD Las Palmas had the better of the pressure.
From the 46th minute the pressure shifted towards RSD Alcala. UD Las Palmas took the lead in the 49th minute: Kirian Rodríguez. RSD Alcala drew level at 1-1 on 69 minutes thanks to Luis Simón Pecharromán. UD Las Palmas took over after the 91st minute, pinning RSD Alcala back. UD Las Palmas went 2-1 up on 96 minutes thanks to Kirian Rodríguez.
UD Las Palmas extended their lead to 3-1 in the 105th minute: Manu Fuster.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 9-12, 8-11 on target. Corners finished 4-7. Dangerous attacks: 55 for UD Las Palmas, 40 for RSD Alcala.
What it means
The wait for a win goes on for RSD Alcala: 6 matches now.
Coming up
Next up for UD Las Palmas: away at Real Oviedo on Monday 2 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Copa del Rey
