Sestao River started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 6' — Espanyol took the lead: 0-1. Marcos Fernández scored from the penalty spot. 18' — Sestao River equalised: 1-1. Adrián Carrión scored it. 40' — Sestao River completed the turnaround: 2-1. Andoni Ugarte scored it. Half time: 2-1.
90' — Espanyol equalised: 2-2. Roberto Fernández scored from the penalty spot. It came in the closing minutes. 94' — Espanyol completed the turnaround: 2-3. Gabriel Moscardo scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 96' — Sestao River equalised: 3-3. Ander Laka scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 120' — Sestao River completed the turnaround: 4-3. Jon Rojo scored it. It came in the closing minutes. After 76' the momentum swung to Espanyol. After 106' the momentum swung to Sestao River. Sestao River won 4-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Sestao RiverDrawEspanyol
Pre-match model estimate: Sestao River 15%, draw 21%, Espanyol 64%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Sestao RiverEspanyol
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min9231
Last 15 min6853
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Sestao River win in 15% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Espanyol win 64%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 0-1 (12%); both teams score in 48%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The early pressure came from Sestao River, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. Espanyol took the lead on 6 minutes thanks to Marcos Fernández from the penalty spot. Sestao River had a goal ruled out in the 10th minute. Sestao River drew level at 1-1 in the 18th minute: Adrián Carrión, set up by Eneko Delgado. Sestao River completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 40 minutes thanks to Andoni Ugarte, set up by Eneko Delgado.
It was Sestao River 2-1 Espanyol at half-time.
Espanyol took over after the 76th minute, pinning Sestao River back. Roberto Fernández equalised for Espanyol at 2-2 after 90 minutes. Espanyol completed the turnaround at 3-2 in the 94th minute: Gabriel Moscardo. Just 2 minutes later (96') Sestao River drew level at 3-3, Ander Laka on target. From the 106th minute the pressure shifted towards Sestao River.
Sestao River completed the turnaround at 4-3 in the 120th minute: Jon Rojo.
Match statistics
Sestao River had 11 shots (11 on target) to Espanyol's 8 (6). Sestao River won 7 corners, Espanyol 12. Espanyol produced 75 dangerous attacks to Sestao River's 57.
What the result means
Sestao River have now won 4 in a row. Espanyol have now gone 6 matches without a win.
Copa del Rey
