UD Llanera vs SD Ponferradina: the story of the match
UD Llanera started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 39' — SD Ponferradina took the lead: 0-1. Serigne Faye scored it. Half time: 0-1.
82' — UD Llanera equalised: 1-1. Longo scored it. After 46' the momentum swung to SD Ponferradina. After 61' the momentum swung to UD Llanera. After 76' the momentum swung to SD Ponferradina. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
UD LlaneraDrawSD Ponferradina
Pre-match model estimate: UD Llanera 20%, draw 24%, SD Ponferradina 56%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
UD LlaneraSD Ponferradina
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min3131
Last 15 min4251
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): UD Llanera win in 20% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and SD Ponferradina win 56%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 0-1 (12%); both teams score in 49%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
UD Llanera – SD Ponferradina match report
Updated:
UD Llanera and SD Ponferradina drew 1-1, and SD Ponferradina won the shoot-out 5-3. It was 0-1 at half-time.
How the match unfolded
UD Llanera started on the front foot, pressing for the first 15 minutes. SD Ponferradina took the lead in the 39th minute: Serigne Faye. It was UD Llanera 0-1 SD Ponferradina at half-time.
From the 46th minute the pressure shifted towards SD Ponferradina. UD Llanera took over after the 61st minute, pinning SD Ponferradina back. UD Llanera drew level at 1-1 in the 82nd minute: Longo. The officials disallowed a SD Ponferradina goal on 91 minutes.
What the numbers say
On target it was 10-8, from 13 and 13 attempts respectively. Corners finished 11-10.
What it means
UD Llanera have now scored in 6 consecutive matches. The wait for a win goes on for SD Ponferradina: 4 matches now.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Copa del Rey
