CD Don Benito vs CD Extremadura: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 35' — CD Don Benito took the lead: 1-0. Gorka Santamaria scored it. 43' — CD Don Benito extended the lead: 2-0. Gorka Santamaria scored it. Half time: 2-0.
74' — CD Extremadura pulled one back: 2-1. Diego Díaz scored from the penalty spot. 81' — CD Extremadura equalised: 2-2. Luis Morcillo scored it. 95' — César Llera of CD Don Benito was sent off. 98' — CD Extremadura completed the turnaround: 2-3. Iker Burgos López scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 118' — Luis Morcillo of CD Extremadura was sent off. 120' — CD Extremadura extended the lead: 2-4. Nordin Al Lal scored it. It came in the closing minutes. After 46' the momentum swung to CD Extremadura. After 106' the momentum swung to CD Don Benito. CD Extremadura won 2-4. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CD Don BenitoDrawCD Extremadura
Pre-match model estimate: CD Don Benito 24%, draw 23%, CD Extremadura 53%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
CD Don BenitoCD Extremadura
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min3122
Last 15 min2842
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CD Don Benito win in 24% of the simulated matches, 23% end level and CD Extremadura win 53%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 56%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
CD Don Benito took the lead in the 35th minute: Gorka Santamaria. Gorka Santamaria made it 2-0 for CD Don Benito after 43 minutes. CD Don Benito led 2-0 at the break.
CD Extremadura took over after the 46th minute, pinning CD Don Benito back. Diego Díaz reduced the deficit for CD Extremadura to 2-1 after 74 minutes. CD Extremadura drew level at 2-2 on 81 minutes thanks to Luis Morcillo. César Llera saw a straight red card in the 95th minute, leaving CD Don Benito short-handed. Just 3 minutes later (98') CD Extremadura completed the turnaround at 3-2, Iker Burgos López on target.
From the 106th minute the pressure shifted towards CD Don Benito. CD Extremadura had a player sent off on 118 minutes: Luis Morcillo. Just 2 minutes later (120') CD Extremadura extended their lead to 4-2, Nordin Al Lal on target.
What the numbers say
CD Don Benito had 5 shots (3 on target) to CD Extremadura's 11 (5). CD Don Benito won 3 corners, CD Extremadura 5. 5 saves came from the CD Don Benito goalkeeper. CD Extremadura produced 160 dangerous attacks to CD Don Benito's 85.
What the result means
CD Don Benito have now scored in 6 consecutive matches. CD Extremadura extend their unbeaten run to 5 matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Copa del Rey
