Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 28' — Real Madrid took the lead: 0-1. Federico Valverde scored it. 36' — Real Madrid extended the lead: 0-2. Arda Güler scored it. Half time: 0-2, with Real Madrid applying more of the pressure.
75' — Real Madrid extended the lead: 0-3. Kylian Mbappé scored it. 79' — José Gayà of Valencia was sent off. Real Madrid won 0-3.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
ValenciaDrawReal Madrid
Pre-match model estimate: Valencia 14%, draw 20%, Real Madrid 66%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
ValenciaReal Madrid
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min1263
Last 15 min837
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Valencia win in 14% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and Real Madrid win 66%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 0-2 (12%); both teams score in 47%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 4.7 yellow cards on average; a red card in 24%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
A 3-0 rout: Real Madrid swept Valencia aside at Mestalla Stadium. The half-time score was 0-2.
How the match unfolded
Valencia had a goal ruled out in the 21st minute. Real Madrid took the lead on 28 minutes thanks to Federico Valverde. Arda Güler made it 2-0 for Real Madrid after 36 minutes. Real Madrid led 2-0 at the break.
Real Madrid extended their lead to 3-0 on 75 minutes thanks to Kylian Mbappé, set up by Arda Güler. José Gayà saw a straight red card in the 79th minute, leaving Valencia short-handed.
What the numbers say
Valencia won 2 corners, Real Madrid 5. Real Madrid produced 42 dangerous attacks to Valencia's 21.
What the result means
Valencia stay 19th on 9 points. The result lifts Real Madrid to 2nd with 30 points, up from 3rd. Real Madrid have now won 8 in a row.
Next fixtures
Next up for Valencia: away at UE Tavernes on Tuesday 10 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
LaLiga
