Aston Villa vs Manchester City: the story of the match
6' — Aston Villa took the lead: 1-0. Nicolas Jackson scored it. Half time: 1-0.
52' — Manchester City equalised: 1-1. Erling Haaland scored it. 60' — Aston Villa went back in front: 2-1. Nicolas Jackson scored it. Aston Villa won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Aston VillaDrawManchester City
Pre-match model estimate: Aston Villa 22%, draw 20%, Manchester City 58%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Aston Villa win in 22% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and Manchester City win 58%. Average goals 3.6; the most likely score is 1-2 (9%); both teams score in 66%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 4.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 24%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Aston Villa took the lead on 6 minutes thanks to Nicolas Jackson, set up by John McGinn. It was Aston Villa 1-0 Manchester City at half-time.
Manchester City drew level at 1-1 on 52 minutes thanks to Erling Haaland, set up by Iliman Ndiaye. Aston Villa went 2-1 up in the 60th minute: Nicolas Jackson, set up by Ibrahim Mbaye.
The statistics
Aston Villa had 5 shots (2 on target) to Manchester City's 11 (7). Aston Villa won 4 corners, Manchester City 7. Manchester City produced 58 dangerous attacks to Aston Villa's 30.
What the result means
The result lifts Aston Villa to 9th with 11 points, up from 12th. Manchester City stay 1st on 21 points. Aston Villa have now won 4 in a row. Manchester City have now scored in 12 consecutive matches.
Premier League
